How to Understand Odds

Posted 2 years ago in EDUCATION.

Anyone who has been dealing with the subject of betting for a long time has undoubtedly been asked by relatives or friends what the odds are for a particular sporting event

How  to   Understand   Odds

The odds are an important little detail in betting that players need to understand to place bets successfully. Anyone who has been dealing with the subject of betting for a long time has undoubtedly been asked by relatives or friends what the odds are for a particular sporting event or what the profit is if x amount is wagered. Another very common question is: What do the odds mean? Of course, the answers to these questions depend on how detailed you want them to be. In any case, they always have one thing in common: It is all about probabilities.

 

What are the odds?

The odds are that the bookmakers set the line for sports betting. Therefore, the value of these offers is an extremely important quality indicator. Last but not least, it is not easy, especially for beginners, to distinguish between reasonable and less good offers. The differences between betting providers are often almost imaginary, but ultimately they are decisive for your plus or minus on the betting account.

 

What does the odds say?

The bookmaker's betting odds reflect the probability of a result occurring. If it can be assumed that a team or an athlete will leave the field as the winner with a high degree of certainty, the rate will be very low. The more unlikely the result, the higher the odds.

As a customer, you can accept or reject the bookmaker's offers. There is no other possibility. However, you cannot bring odds into play yourself. This is exactly where the difference between a "normal" bookmaker and a betting exchange can be seen.

 

How is a betting odd created?

The provider always specifies the betting odds. At this point one speaks of the bookmaker advantage due to the following mathematical calculation. The probability of the outcome is calculated in step one. The companies incorporate all available information into the analysis, starting with the current form of the teams, the standings, a possible derby character, missing or injured players and head-to-head comparisons. From this information, a percentage probability of occurrence is formed, which can look like this:

  • Team A: 50 percent
  • Tie: 30 percent
  • Team B: 20 ​​percent

From these numbers, the online bookmaker calculates the so-called fair betting odds according to Formula 1 / probability of occurrence x 100.

  • Team A: 2.00
  • Draw: 3.33
  • Team B: 5.00

However, you do not see these odds in the offer. The betting provider now calculates its mathematical advantage, i.e. the profit margin. We assume that the bookmaker wants to earn seven percent on the tip and thus calls up an odds key of 93 percent. In this case, the following formula results: fair odds x 93 / 100. In practice, you can count on the following odds:

  • Team A: 1.86
  • Draw: 3.10
  • Team B: 4.65

Our example shows very nicely that the betting odds for a 50% chance of winning are not 2.00 but are lower due to the bookmaker's advantage. In the battle between provider and customer, you always have to make up for this factual deficit before turning onto the winning road.

 

The example from practice – a small comparison

We want to show you the betting odds using a precise example. We chose the Champions League game between Toten City and FC Sevilla. Below you can see five selected bookmakers with their offers in the main markets and the respective odds key:

  • Bet3000: 3.40 – 3.80 – 2.20 = 98.81%
  • Tipico: 3.10 – 3.60 – 2.20 = 94.78%
  • Bwin: 3.25 – 3.70 – 2.10 = 94.88%
  • Interwetten: 3.40 – 3.50 – 2.10 = 95.24%
  • Oddset: 3.10 - 3.50 - 2.05 = 91.15%

 

How are quotas calculated?

An example of the way to a fair quota:

  • Soccer team A plays against team B
  • Possible outcome: A wins or B wins
  • Let's assume the following ratio:
  • Odds A = 2
  • Odds B = 2
  • Total bet on A = 1,000 (when winning: 1,000 x 2 = 2,000)
  • Total bet on B = 1,000 (when winning: 1,000 x 2 = 2,000)

Balance: Regardless of whether A or B wins, the bookmaker wins nothing, but he also loses nothing. That's not exactly a great betting odds for him. He will therefore proceed differently, namely:

  • Fair quota A = 1.9 (when winning: 1,000 x 1.9 = 1,900)
  • Fair quota B = 1.9 (when winning: 1,000 x 1.9 = 1,900)

Balance sheet: The bookmaker takes in a bet of 2,000, but only has to pay out 1,900 and therefore makes a profit of 100.

 

Tags: odds,
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Jay Jangid

Living in Pakistan

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